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A Blueprint For Action: Policy Options to Reduce Arizona’s Contribution To Global Warming 4/24/2006 Download the full report.

Executive Summary

As the new home of Arizona PIRG's environmental work, Environment Arizona can be contacted with any questions regarding this report.

Arizona could make major strides towards reducing its emissions of global warming pollution by adopting a set of policies to reduce the use of fossil fuels, to promote more efficient use of energy and to increase the use of cleaner renewable forms of energy.

Adoption of the 14 policy strategies in this report would help Arizona stabilize its emissions despite significant population growth. In the process, these strategies would improve Arizona’s energy security and begin the technological shifts necessary to reduce Arizona’s emissions of global warming pollution to levels that do not have a harmful effect on the climate.

Even with these strategies, however, Arizona will still need to take additional and immediate steps to reduce its contribution to global warming. We include suggestions for a variety of other policies that Arizona could investigate for further cuts in emissions.

Global warming, caused by humaninduced changes to the climate, is a major threat to Arizona’s future.

• Since the beginning of the Industrial Age, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide—the leading global warming gas—have increased by 35 percent, a rate of increase unprecedented in the last 20,000 years. Global average temperatures increased by about 1° F during the 20th century, a greater rate of increase than at any time in the last 1,000 years.

• In Arizona, a changed climate is anticipated to include a wide variety of impacts.

o Global warming will exacerbate Arizona's existing water supply shortages. Smaller mountain snowpacks will reduce the amount of water in the Colorado River. Increased temperatures will induce more evaporation and reduce the amount of moisture in the soil, reducing groundwater recharge— the source of 60 percent of the state's drinking water.

o Heat waves and extreme hightemperature days in the summer will increase, resulting in an increased risk of heat-related illness and death.

o Greater winter precipitation will increase plant growth in the spring, providing more fuel for wildfires during hotter and drier summers.

o The number of farmed acres could decline by 20 percent as crop yields fall.

o Greater year-to-year variation in precipitation could also lead to increases in rodent-borne diseases, such as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.

Emissions of global warming pollution are on the rise in Arizona.

• Between 1990 and 2000, Arizona’s emissions of carbon dioxide from energy use increased by 48 percent. Electricity generation (45 percent) is the largest source of global warming pollution, followed by transportation (35 percent). In addition to being major consumers of electricity, homes, businesses and industry contribute another 9 percent of emissions through their use of natural gas and other fuels. (See Figure ES-1.)

• Arizona is on a path that will lead to dramatic increases in global warming emissions over the next several decades. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of energy consumption growth and projections of Arizona’s population growth, Arizona’s emissions of carbon dioxide in 2025 could be more than twice as great as levels in 2000. We use this as our reference case.

Arizona could reduce its contribution to global warming by adopting 14 key policies and encouraging other states in the region to do the same. There are numerous tools available to Arizona to reduce global warming pollution. The following 14 strategies include policies that take advantage of readily available savings at low cost, or even net economic benefit, to Arizona.

To reduce emissions from transportation:

1. Adopt the clean cars program, which will put increasing numbers of hybrid-electric cars on Arizona’s roads and impose limits on vehicle carbon dioxide emissions.

2. Require the sale of low-rolling resistance replacement tires that improve vehicle efficiency without negatively affecting safety.

3. Establish a revenue-neutral “feebate” program to reward the purchase of more fuel-efficient vehicles.

4. Require automobile insurers to offer pay-as-you-drive automobile insurance, in which insurance rates are calculated by the mile, rewarding those who drive less, while potentially reducing accidents.

5. Adopt policies that would reduce growth in vehicle miles traveled by cars and light trucks on Arizona’s highways, such as measures to reduce sprawling development and encourage the use of transit and other transportation alternatives.

6. Establish a renewable fuels standard, so that a portion of motor fuel, both gasoline and diesel, comes from renewable sources. To reduce emissions from homes, businesses and industry:

7. Reduce energy use by expanding energy efficiency programs supported by electricity and natural gas ratepayers.

8. Expand appliance efficiency standards for a series of residential and commercial products, saving money for consumers and reducing electric sector emissions.

9. Improve the efficiency of new commercial and residential buildings and thereby reduce building-related energy costs and global warming pollution.

10. Expand the use of energy-efficient combined heat and power systems in industry and commercial buildings.

To reduce emissions from electricity generation:

11. Dramatically increase the installation of solar photovoltaic and thermal energy systems on homes and businesses through direct incentives and new methods of financing.

12. Expand and strengthen the state’s proposed Renewable Energy Standard so that 30 percent of all electricity consumed in Arizona comes from new, clean, renewable sources.

13. Stop the growth in emissions from coal-fired power plants, using appropriate public policy tools such as greater energy efficiency measures or a carbon “cap and trade” program.

To reduce emissions with other strategies:

14. Reduce government sector emissions through “lead by example” measures, such as by purchasing renewable power, cutting energy consumption in new buildings in half, increasing energy efficiency, and purchasing more efficient vehicles for state fleets.

Adoption of the 14 strategies presented in this report would reduce Arizona’s emissions by approximately 77 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide below the reference case projected level by 2025, despite an expected 86 percent increase in population. (See Figure ES-2.) With just these 14 policies out of the many available, projected growth in carbon dioxide emissions would be near zero.

Adoption of additional strategies—such as the several dozen other policies being considered by the Climate Change Advisory Group—can reduce emissions further and produce a reduction in total global warming emissions, not just a reduction in the emissions growth rate.

Masked in the cumulative emission projections presented in Figure ES-2 are diverging trends in the savings achieved in the electricity generation sector and in the transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors. The strategies presented in this report would cause electric sector emissions to decline each year (see Figure ES-3), while other emissions continue to rise.

By using existing technologies and reasonable public policy tools, Arizona can make large strides toward reducing the state’s contribution to global warming in the near term, while in many cases improving public health, economic well-being and energy security. To reap these benefits, Arizona must seize every opportunity to begin reducing its emissions.

• Arizona should adopt strong goals for reducing global warming pollution to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure its progress. For example, New Mexico intends to reduce its pollution by 10 percent below 2000 levels by 2020 and California has announced it will reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

• Arizona should promptly adopt the measures in this report and investigate other policy options to reduce global warming emissions, especially with regards to reducing vehicle-miles traveled and encouraging the development of non-fossil, non-nuclear sources of energy.

• Arizona should begin to plan for the technological and other changes that will be needed to achieve the longterm goal of reducing global warming emissions to a level that will not threaten the climate.